Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1419…6e6b crypto 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$408 (-13%) realized −$392 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%113W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$145
sports 30% −$143
other 8% −$18
culture 6% −$140
politics 6% −$28
world 1% +$3
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$2
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -18.3% -26.0% 46% 46% -19.6%
≤30d 25 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 44% -18.9%
≤90d 25 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 44% -18.9%
all 219 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 45% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 45% -23.4%
10% -22.6% 37% -30.7%
15% -30.1% 29% -37.4%
20% -36.9% 22% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$392
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses113 / 106
Open positions4
Markets (closed)219 / 223
History coverage155d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$4 -42%
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher Jun 25 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$2 +28%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Jun 23 $10 −$9 -90%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? Mar 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Feb 22 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 22 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 22 $30 −$20 -66%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $10 $0 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $60 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 46h
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher SELL Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.30 · official $34.30 (match) · 570 history records