Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1418…523d crypto 388 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$429 (-16%) realized −$427 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%119W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day70.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$983
7 days−$602
14 days−$594
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$507
other 16% −$89
sports 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 350 -31.4% -38.0% 29% 27% -31.6%
≤30d 385 -25.0% -32.2% 31% 30% -29.3%
≤90d 385 -25.0% -32.2% 31% 30% -29.3%
all 385 -25.0% -32.2% 31% 30% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 30% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.6% 29% -36.1%
15% -44.6% 27% -42.3%
20% -50.0% 26% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$427
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses119 / 266
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)385 / 388
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$2 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$7 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +123%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$8 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$9 +160%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$11 +133%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$16 +118%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $14 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $9 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.24 · official $10.24 (match) · 872 history records