Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x1418…a265 sports 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,812 (-8%) realized −$4,804 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%136W / 192L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$820
7 days−$680
14 days−$2,125
30 days−$2,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$819
crypto 13% −$2,711
other 4% −$1,869
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +37.9% +24.8% 48% 48% -25.4%
≤30d 89 -8.2% -16.9% 31% 30% -33.1%
≤90d 320 -5.9% -14.9% 40% 39% -23.0%
all 328 -4.2% -13.4% 41% 41% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 41% -17.6%
10% -21.7% 40% -25.5%
15% -29.2% 37% -32.7%
20% -36.2% 29% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$169 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$4,804
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses136 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions1
Markets (closed)328 / 329
History coverage90d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 35¢ 32¢ $83 $75 −$8 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $349 −$265 -76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $232 +$116 +50%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $546 −$312 -57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$3 +196%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $509 −$502 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $264 +$245 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$12 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$13 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$19 +143%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $713 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $98 +$944 +967%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $148 +$330 +223%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $68 −$66 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $117 +$99 +84%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $56 +$62 +112%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$15 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$15 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $172 −$169 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $492 −$483 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,122 −$1,100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $680 +$443 +65%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $56 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $57 −$56 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $38 +$18 +48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $99 −$98 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $66 +$33 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $195 −$191 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $220 +$231 +105%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $66 −$64 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 05 $179 −$178 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $242 +$590 +244%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $103 +$150 +145%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $42 −$41 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $245 −$240 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $52 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $16 +$36 +223%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $45 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $26 +$19 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $85 17m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 9¢ $84 43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $349 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $348 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 66¢ $232 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $234 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $546 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $103 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $4 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $4 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $1 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $509 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $509 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $264 39h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $6 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $41 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $41 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 70¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $32 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $13 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $33 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 21¢ $512 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $713 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $1,041 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 9¢ $98 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $478 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $148 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 10¢ $68 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $216 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.91 · official $74.91 (match) · 571 history records