Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

14 0x1418…d952 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate90%18W / 2L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day34.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-12.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-2.9%	-12.2%	90%	30%	-7.3%
≤30d	20	-2.9%	-12.2%	90%	30%	-7.3%
≤90d	20	-2.9%	-12.2%	90%	30%	-7.3%
all	20	-2.9%	-12.2%	90%	30%	-7.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-12.2%	30%	-7.3%
10% ← realistic here	-20.6%	10%	-16.1%
15%	-28.3%	0%	-24.2%
20%	-35.3%	0%	-31.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$26 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses18 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day34.0

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 18	$50	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$3	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 18	$50	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 18	$111	+$12	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$9	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 18	$151	+$3	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$11	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$12	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$3	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$6	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 18	$102	+$16	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 18	$50	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 18	$91	+$4	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 18	$8	+$2	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 18	$2	$0	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 18	$1	$0	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$50	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$50	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$50	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$51	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$50	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$50	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$51	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$10	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$50	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$51	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$50	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$50	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$50	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$51	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$51	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$50	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records