Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1417…4dd2 crypto 742 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (213 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,306 (-19%) realized −$4,259 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%542W / 584L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day212.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,459
7 days−$6,377
14 days−$5,942
30 days−$5,942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$446
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (213 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 676 -61.1% -64.8% 24% 20% -47.6%
≤30d 1126 -34.0% -40.3% 48% 40% -28.4%
≤90d 1126 -34.0% -40.3% 48% 40% -28.4%
all 1126 -34.0% -40.3% 48% 40% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover212.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.3% 40% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -46.0% 13% -35.3%
15% -51.2% 5% -41.5%
20% -56.0% 4% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$4,259
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses542 / 584
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1126 / 742
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day212.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 50¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $49 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $104 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $111 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.01 · official $8.54 (match) · 3500 history records