Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1414…866a weather 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day34.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -9.1% -17.7% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 45 -9.1% -17.7% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤90d 45 -9.1% -17.7% 0% 0% -16.3%
all 45 -9.1% -17.7% 0% 0% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 0% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -24.3%
15% -32.8% 0% -31.6%
20% -39.4% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $83 −$12 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 21 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $54 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $53 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $32 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $14 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$11 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 19 $17 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $68 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $28 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $16 −$8 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 50¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 51¢ $26 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 45¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 45¢ $22 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 60¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 59¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 48¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 49¢ $24 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $24 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 55¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL No 56¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY No 55¢ $28 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 44¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 44¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL No 50¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 56¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 54¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 54¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 53¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 53¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records