Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1413…80fe crypto 1240 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,364 (-23%) realized −$5,339 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%664W / 605L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,194
sports 11% −$2,475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -14.2% -22.3% 44% 41% -58.7%
≤30d 780 -10.2% -18.8% 37% 30% -50.3%
≤90d 1269 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 43% -38.9%
all 1269 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 43% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 43% -38.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 37% -44.8%
15% -25.5% 28% -50.1%
20% -32.8% 18% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,339
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses664 / 605
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1269 / 1240
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 406 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $255 −$262 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,222 −$1,222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2026-05-11? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$17 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $13 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $12 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $13 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $13 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.16 (match) · 3500 history records