Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
14 0x1411…2410 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$126 (-5%) realized −$10 · open −$116
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$17
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$30
other 47% −$96
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$15
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +251.4% +217.9% 75% 75% -4.2%
≤30d 13 +59.4% +44.2% 46% 46% -8.8%
≤90d 16 +44.5% +30.7% 50% 50% -13.5%
all 18 +43.3% +29.7% 50% 50% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.7% 50% -10.1%
10% +17.3% 33% -18.7%
15% +5.9% 28% -26.6%
20% -4.5% 28% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +120% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)18 / 35
History coverage99d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $260 $150 −$111 (-42%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 62¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 61¢ 64¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 37¢ 43¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $24 $13 −$11 (-45%)
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027? No 84¢ 88¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+102%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will Aniya Harvey win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 27 $1 +$13 +938%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $16 +$8 +52%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $17 +$3 +16%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 23 $363 $0 +0%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $22 +$3 +16%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government Jun 05 $64 +$49 +77%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $9 +$16 +177%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $1,211 −$45 -4%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme Apr 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 11 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 30 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slove Mar 30 $82 +$70 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $32 1h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $6 2h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $9 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $23 3h
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $13 3h
Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $45 4h
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $3 4h
Will Aniya Harvey win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 61¢ $3 13h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 61¢ $6 13h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 14h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL Yes 71¢ $14 21h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $3 22h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $20 22h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 63¢ $3 22h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 63¢ $10 22h
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 61¢ $19 22h
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 22h
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 61¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.56 · official $470.57 (match) · 124 history records