Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x1411…f6e3 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+7%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$342
sports 46% +$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +55.7% +40.9% 67% 67% +89.2%
≤30d 6 +55.7% +40.9% 67% 67% +89.2%
≤90d 6 +55.7% +40.9% 67% 67% +89.2%
all 6 +55.7% +40.9% 67% 67% +89.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.9% 67% +89.2%
10% ← realistic here +27.4% 67% +71.1%
15% +15.1% 67% +54.6%
20% +3.8% 67% +39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$20 · ×8.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.25 per $1 lost it wins $16.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $169 +$347 +205%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $75 −$35 -46%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $160 +$170 +106%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $100 +$100 +100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 +$36 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $516 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $228 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $102 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $28 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $55 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records