Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1411…631d crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-15%) realized −$69 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$131
crypto 38% −$45
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.2% -24.2% 26% 17% -57.3%
≤30d 23 -16.2% -24.2% 26% 17% -57.3%
≤90d 23 -16.2% -24.2% 26% 17% -57.3%
all 23 -16.2% -24.2% 26% 17% -57.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 17% -57.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 17% -61.4%
15% -38.0% 17% -65.2%
20% -44.1% 17% -68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 14¢ 12¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $14 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $11 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.62 · official $11.62 (match) · 56 history records