Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

14 0x140f…6497 economics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d

RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$504 (-84%) realized −$487 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$60per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	8	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$63 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage

Net worth$74

Realized−$487

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage177d

Avg bet$60

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$46	$40	−$6 (-12%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$45	$34	−$11 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m	Apr 27	$45	−$45	-100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	Apr 27	$48	−$48	-100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me	Mar 15	$142	−$142	-100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	Mar 14	$48	−$48	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 28	$158	−$158	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 20	$55	−$55	-100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Dec 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Dec 20	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$50	1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$49	1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$45	49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$48	49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$142	92d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m	BUY Yes	0¢	$48	92d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$2	138d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$45	145d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	3¢	$50	145d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$7	169d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	15¢	$90	169d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	170d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	14¢	$3	170d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	13¢	$3	173d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	173d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	177d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	177d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	177d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.00 · official $74.00 (match) · 18 history records