Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x140e…cf85 sports 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$477 (+1%) realized +$492 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%166W / 95L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$948est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$834
14 days+$338
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$283
other 1% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.0% -16.8% 60% 45% -13.2%
≤30d 189 +9.9% -0.6% 65% 50% -8.3%
≤90d 261 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 49% -8.8%
all 261 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 49% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 49% -8.8%
10% -15.6% 25% -17.5%
15% -23.8% 16% -25.5%
20% -31.3% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$79 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$492
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses166 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$948
Open positions1
Markets (closed)261 / 266
History coverage52d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 62¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $704 +$61 +9%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $708 +$62 +9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $578 +$300 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1,042 −$463 -44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $870 +$172 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $344 +$222 +64%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$140 +70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $498 −$294 -59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $761 −$482 -63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $303 +$132 +43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $253 +$113 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $695 −$623 -90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $304 −$120 -40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$52 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $303 +$145 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $707 +$210 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$136 -45%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $303 +$32 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $405 +$70 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,010 −$185 -18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $506 −$117 -23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $998 +$543 +54%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $800 +$394 +49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $715 +$86 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $695 +$19 +3%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $303 −$300 -99%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $303 +$37 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $304 +$148 +49%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $627 +$145 +23%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $369 +$38 +10%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $303 −$106 -35%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $303 −$131 -43%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $304 −$1 -0%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $304 +$95 +31%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $304 +$35 +12%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $776 +$100 +13%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $303 −$75 -25%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $303 +$25 +8%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $303 +$32 +10%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $278 +$47 +17%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $404 +$40 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $385 +$138 +36%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $369 +$37 +10%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $305 −$298 -98%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $310 +$60 +19%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $914 +$26 +3%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $303 +$68 +22%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $203 +$39 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 69¢ $765 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $503 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $201 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $770 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $708 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 31¢ $81 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 88¢ $878 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $578 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 50¢ $579 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1,042 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $1,042 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $870 41h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 AND Uzbekistan v BUY 61¢ $566 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $344 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 58¢ $201 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $204 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $94 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $404 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $99 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 59¢ $197 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 60¢ $101 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY 65¢ $356 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 23¢ $264 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $761 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $304 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $434 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $303 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $366 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.42 · official $169.97 · 661 history records