Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x140c…8e58 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$197 (-17%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$123
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 36% +7.6%
≤30d 14 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 36% +7.6%
≤90d 38 -38.3% -44.2% 29% 26% -19.3%
all 38 -38.3% -44.2% 29% 26% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 26% -19.3%
10% -49.5% 21% -27.0%
15% -54.4% 21% -34.1%
20% -58.9% 18% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$23 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage58d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$52 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $114 +$163 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events? Apr 25 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 25 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 25 $22 +$22 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 25 $68 +$95 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 25 $80 +$48 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$30 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 25 $13 +$43 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$7 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $277 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 57d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events? SELL No 14¢ $17 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $99 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $49 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records