trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? | No | 82¢ | 98¢ | $6 | $7 | +$1 (+20%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 58¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+10%) |
| Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 48¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+29%) |
| Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? | Yes | 74¢ | 75¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -57% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -16% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $2 | +$2 | +112% |
| Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -95% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 13 | $2 | +$1 | +57% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -95% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 12 | $2 | −$1 | -47% |
| Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 | Jun 09 | $2 | +$2 | +81% |
| Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) | Jun 08 | $4 | +$4 | +88% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 21 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 38% | 24% | -29.9% |
| ≤30d | 21 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 38% | 24% | -29.9% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 38% | 24% | -29.9% |
| all | 21 | -18.1% | -25.9% | 38% | 24% | -29.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.9% | 24% | -29.9% |
| 10% | -33.0% | 19% | -36.6% |
| 15% | -39.5% | 19% | -42.7% |
| 20% | -45.4% | 19% | -48.4% |