Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1409…aa5f world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$5
other 29% $0
politics 12% −$5
sports 10% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 10% 0% -11.5%
all 29 +0.3% -9.2% 24% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -10.4%
10% -17.9% 3% -19.0%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage253d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $73 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $67 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $56 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $26 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October? Oct 08 $1 +$1 +37%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $19 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $47 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $52 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $56 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $56 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $56 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records