Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1405…64bd other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$119 (+1%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 53L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$14
politics 15% −$7
other 14% +$20
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$119
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 62 +10.8% +0.3% 26% 18% -7.5%
all 72 +9.2% -1.2% 26% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 15% -9.0%
10% -10.7% 15% -17.7%
15% -19.3% 14% -25.7%
20% -27.2% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×6.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage552d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $367 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$8 +129%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $183 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $196 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $379 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 11 $9 +$15 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 59m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 3h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 23h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 27h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 16d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 23d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $87 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records