Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1405…9882 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (334 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$916 (-9%) realized −$715 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%48W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day333.6pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,887
other 19% +$491
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (334 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 37% -20.9%
≤30d 112 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 37% -20.9%
≤90d 112 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 37% -20.9%
all 112 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 37% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover333.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 37% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 35% -28.5%
15% -37.7% 32% -35.4%
20% -43.8% 30% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$71 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$715
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses48 / 64
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions7
Markets (closed)112 / 119
History coverage5d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day333.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 34¢ $135 $80 −$55 (-41%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? No 53¢ 52¢ $73 $73 −$1 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 8¢ $127 $23 −$105 (-82%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 49¢ 49¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 52¢ 10¢ $52 $10 −$41 (-80%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 82¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $85 −$85 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $158 −$158 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 28 $152 +$14 +9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $163 +$8 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $168 −$168 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $109 +$119 +109%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $180 +$385 +214%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $135 +$115 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $146 +$86 +59%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $141 −$141 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $146 −$146 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $6 +$10 +167%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$4 -12%
Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Yawara Esports (+1.5) Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: MIBR.F (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) Jun 26 $26 +$26 +100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $8 +$8 +89%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $120 +$54 +45%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $143 +$164 +114%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $130 +$14 +11%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 26 $15 −$10 -64%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $138 −$138 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C Jun 26 $156 +$13 +8%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $76 +$46 +60%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Jun 26 $3 +$3 +93%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $190 +$202 +106%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $167 −$132 -79%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $218 −$218 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $265 −$13 -5%
Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $198 +$121 +61%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $184 −$101 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $179 −$179 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $191 +$185 +97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $49 +$26 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3 $0 -14%
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs Vasco Esports (+1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $3 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $2 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $4 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $2 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $3 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $5 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $131 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $2 1h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $17 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $3 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $6 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 49¢ $29 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 52¢ $132 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $138 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $24 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $10 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $6 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $11 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $11 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $2 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $2 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 38¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.21 · official $215.23 (match) · 1631 history records