Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1402…eb6a other 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,473 (+1%) realized +$1,472 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 108L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$270
politics 35% −$68
sports 13% +$1,818
culture 4% −$8
world 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 +3.4% -6.5% 17% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 80 -8.6% -17.3% 10% 6% -8.6%
all 135 +0.5% -9.0% 20% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 12% -8.7%
10% -17.8% 12% -17.5%
15% -25.7% 10% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,655) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$8 · ×10.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized+$1,472
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $356 $357 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $950 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,746 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,138 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,284 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,143 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,084 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 05 $76 +$66 +86%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,044 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $316 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $464 +$1 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,973 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $79 +$35 +44%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 24 $71 +$50 +70%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,128 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,098 −$3 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $4,806 −$5 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,667 −$3 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,182 −$4 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,630 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,208 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $3,187 −$4 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,695 −$2 -0%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 03 $1,676 +$1,486 +89%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,418 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 11m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $566 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $566 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $694 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $696 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $369 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $370 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $949 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $950 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $787 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $789 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $849 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $850 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $356 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,140 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,142 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,143 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $958 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $959 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $939 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,072 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,073 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,268 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.87 · official $356.87 (match) · 419 history records