Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x1400…765d sports 1176 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,600 (+9%) realized +$1,905 · open −$305
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%531W / 565L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$293est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$71
30 days+$1,393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,127
crypto 5% −$154
other 4% +$84
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.7% -10.1% 37% 37% +1.5%
≤30d 881 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 45% -6.7%
≤90d 1025 -0.9% -10.4% 47% 46% -7.5%
all 1096 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 47% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 42% -16.0%
15% -25.6% 38% -24.1%
20% -32.9% 31% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,330
Realized+$1,905
Unrealized−$305
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses531 / 565
Est. fees paid−$293
Open positions80
Markets (closed)1096 / 1176
History coverage102d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 1096 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 14¢ 100¢ $45 $328 +$283 (+630%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 53¢ 100¢ $60 $114 +$53 (+88%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Zeynep Sonmez 50¢ 88¢ $34 $59 +$25 (+74%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 62¢ 100¢ $27 $44 +$17 (+62%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 66¢ 91¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+37%)
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Elena Micic 22¢ 24¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Ignacio Buse 41¢ 100¢ $13 $32 +$19 (+145%)
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Joao Lucas Da Silva 69¢ 80¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Katerina Siniakova 76¢ 98¢ $21 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Cosme de Ravel 24¢ 43¢ $14 $25 +$11 (+79%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Mai Hontama 77¢ 89¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+15%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Algeria 79¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Grigor Dimitrov 68¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 65¢ 69¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Daniel Rincon 33¢ 24¢ $20 $15 −$6 (-28%)
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jenson Brooksby 40¢ 44¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 33¢ 32¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Elina Svitolina 70¢ 68¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Anna Kalinskaya 35¢ 32¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 49¢ 12¢ $46 $11 −$35 (-75%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Petr Bar Biryukov 9¢ 6¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-39%)
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Miriam Bulgaru 58¢ 84¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+46%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 71¢ 99¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+40%)
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Philip Henning 69¢ 86¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Akira Santillan 0¢ 14¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $40 −$3 -7%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $48 +$29 +61%
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Kim Chiarello Jun 16 $12 −$5 -39%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $41 +$66 +160%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $15 +$65 +421%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $23 −$3 -12%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $29 −$11 -36%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $14 −$7 -50%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $47 +$7 +16%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $20 −$10 -48%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $13 +$13 +97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $22 −$21 -98%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 02 $14 +$20 +139%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 01 $30 +$62 +209%
Prostejov: Yosuke Watanuki vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 01 $14 +$18 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $28 −$8 -28%
Prostejov: Lautaro Midon vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 01 $14 +$17 +119%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 01 $29 +$5 +16%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $12 +$11 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $14 +$2 +13%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $75 −$74 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Tyler Zink Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-17? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-16? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 61¢ $6 0m
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan BUY Akira Santillan 13¢ $8 0m
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Daniel Rincon 35¢ $7 1m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 52¢ $7 1m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 52¢ $7 1m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 72¢ $7 2m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 7¢ $9 3m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 68¢ $7 3m
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Anastasia Kulikova 17¢ $7 3m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 35¢ $7 3m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 35¢ $7 3m
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 35¢ $7 4m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $7 5m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 56¢ $7 5m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $7 6m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $7 6m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Austria 85¢ $7 7m
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 32¢ $7 7m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $7 7m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 30¢ $7 8m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 36¢ $7 8m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 81¢ $7 9m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $7 9m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $7 10m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 74¢ $7 11m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 65¢ $7 12m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 85¢ $7 12m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 86¢ $7 12m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 35¢ $2 12m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $7 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,330.36 · official $1,330.47 (match) · 3294 history records