Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13ff…8bd4 crypto 1326 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (160 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,580 (+3%) realized +$1,580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate79%1085W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day159.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$347
sports 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (160 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 682 -18.9% -26.6% 74% 2% -14.8%
≤30d 1378 -13.7% -21.9% 79% 3% -13.4%
≤90d 1378 -13.7% -21.9% 79% 3% -13.4%
all 1378 -13.7% -21.9% 79% 3% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover159.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 3% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 1% -21.7%
15% -36.2% 1% -29.2%
20% -42.5% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1085 / 293
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1378 / 1326
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day159.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1378 Trades
no open positions (217 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $99 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $92 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $66 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $94 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $92 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $9 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records