Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x13fe…4fb2 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$19 (+4%) realized +$0 · open +$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR89%break-even

Win rate89%8W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$38

7 days+$107

14 days+$108

30 days+$108

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +89%

net ROI/market (all)+26.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+48.3%	+34.2%	100%	100%	+28.2%
≤30d	7	+43.1%	+29.5%	100%	100%	+27.1%
≤90d	8	+57.5%	+42.5%	100%	100%	+28.8%
all	9	+40.0%	+26.7%	89%	89%	-5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.7%	89%	-5.7%
10%	+14.6%	67%	-14.8%
15%	+3.5%	56%	-23.0%
20%	-6.7%	22%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$100 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage

Net worth$139

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$19

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses8 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage448d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$120	$139	+$19 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$82	+$38	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$57	+$26	+46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$50	+$6	+12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$37	+$13	+34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$18	+$19	+105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$12	+$6	+48%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Jun 14	$11	+$1	+12%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	May 13	$5	+$7	+158%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Apr 01	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$120	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$82	27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$57	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	83¢	$50	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$37	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$18	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$12	9d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	SELL No	49¢	$13	9d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	BUY No	42¢	$11	41d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	153d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	BUY Yes	36¢	$100	447d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.63 · official $138.63 (match) · 18 history records