Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

13 0x13fe…58de other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate55%6W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+13.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+25.8%	+13.8%	55%	36%	-12.8%
≤30d	11	+25.8%	+13.8%	55%	36%	-12.8%
≤90d	11	+25.8%	+13.8%	55%	36%	-12.8%
all	11	+25.8%	+13.8%	55%	36%	-12.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.8%	36%	-12.8%
10%	+2.9%	27%	-21.1%
15%	-7.0%	27%	-28.7%
20%	-16.1%	27%	-35.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.85 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$87

Realized+$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses6 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage3d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$81	+$7	+9%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$88	+$15	+16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$34	−$34	-100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$30	+$2	+7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$25	+$26	+104%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?	Jun 16	$1	+$6	+593%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$6	+$3	+54%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	92¢	$81	1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	40¢	$21	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	85¢	$88	8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$34	11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	93¢	$30	32h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	32h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	20¢	$6	32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$25	33h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	43¢	$5	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$5	3d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	64¢	$6	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.10 · official $87.10 (match) · 20 history records