Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x13fe…048f other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate73%8W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$43

7 days+$43

14 days+$43

30 days+$43

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-11.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+19.0%	+7.7%	100%	75%	+0.9%
≤30d	4	+19.0%	+7.7%	100%	75%	+0.9%
≤90d	5	-4.8%	-13.9%	80%	60%	-7.5%
all	11	-1.8%	-11.1%	73%	27%	-8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.1%	27%	-8.6%
10%	-19.6%	18%	-17.3%
15%	-27.4%	0%	-25.3%
20%	-34.5%	0%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

62% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized+$10

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses8 / 3

Open positions7

Markets (closed)11 / 18

History coverage238d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	80¢	77¢	$56	$54	−$2 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$24	$25	+$1 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	14¢	17¢	$16	$19	+$3 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$8	$9	+$1 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Jun 17	$21	+$5	+26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	Jun 17	$21	+$6	+30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Jun 17	$155	+$31	+20%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	Jun 16	$179	$0	+0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Apr 01	$34	−$34	-100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Nov 28	$200	$0	-0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Nov 28	$200	$0	-0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Nov 14	$210	+$1	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025	Nov 10	$208	+$5	+2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025	Nov 05	$205	+$2	+1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Oct 27	$406	+$2	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	BUY No	80¢	$56	0m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	SELL No	77¢	$26	1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	BUY No	61¢	$21	1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	SELL No	87¢	$27	1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$16	2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	BUY No	67¢	$21	2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$8	4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL Yes	52¢	$186	5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	18¢	$24	18h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY Yes	43¢	$155	19h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	SELL No	100¢	$180	19h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY No	100¢	$179	45d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	18¢	$34	77d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	SELL No	100¢	$200	201d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY No	100¢	$200	201d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL No	100¢	$200	201d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY No	100¢	$200	207d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	SELL No	98¢	$211	214d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY No	97¢	$210	218d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025	BUY No	98¢	$208	224d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025	BUY No	99¢	$205	232d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	SELL Yes	95¢	$201	232d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	BUY Yes	96¢	$203	232d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	SELL Yes	96¢	$207	232d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	BUY Yes	93¢	$203	237d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.47 · official $123.47 (match) · 30 history records