trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -28.3% | -35.2% | 50% | 50% | -16.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -52.1% | -56.6% | 33% | 33% | -70.2% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -22.8% | -30.2% | 50% | 50% | -32.1% |
| all | 10 | +32.8% | +20.1% | 60% | 60% | +23.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +20.1% | 60% | +23.6% |
| 10% | +8.6% | 50% | +11.8% |
| 15% | -1.9% | 50% | +1.0% |
| 20% | -11.5% | 20% | -8.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 58¢ | 76¢ | $30 | $39 | +$9 (+30%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Yes | 87¢ | 88¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 38¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $4 | −$6 (-57%) |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 14¢ | 15¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 17 | $36 | +$16 | +43% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | May 18 | $103 | −$102 | -100% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 18 | $11 | −$3 | -31% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 07 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 30 | $100 | +$39 | +39% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | Mar 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET | Mar 18 | $10 | +$5 | +47% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $134 | +$214 | +160% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $6 | +$23 | +358% |