Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x13f5…e03e sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$58 (+52%) realized +$60 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +149% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +126% what you keep after slip
Net edge+126%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+125.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +149.3% +125.5% 73% 73% +51.5%
≤30d 11 +149.3% +125.5% 73% 73% +51.5%
≤90d 11 +149.3% +125.5% 73% 73% +51.5%
all 11 +149.3% +125.5% 73% 73% +51.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +125.5% 73% +51.5%
10% +104.0% 73% +37.0%
15% +84.3% 73% +23.7%
20% +66.2% 73% +11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +149% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 24¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $7 +$27 +365%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$9 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$14 +307%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$12 +276%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$9 +206%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$16 +388%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $29 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $31 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $7 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $7 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $7 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $4 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $4 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $4 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $4 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.14 · official $27.14 (match) · 23 history records