Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13f2…3209 other 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 27% −$24
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage140d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $775 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $475 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $719 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $597 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $511 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $477 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $381 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $234 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $202 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $355 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $484 −$3 -1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $197 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $197 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $634 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $579 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $224 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $520 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $306 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 11m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 5h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 12h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 13h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 25h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 25h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 29h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 35h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 41h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 44h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 46h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 47h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.79 · official $56.79 (match) · 1456 history records