Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13f1…9d4b weather 251 markets active 13h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%249W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 46 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 200 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 249 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses249 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)249 / 251
History coverage102d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on June 12 Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 2? Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or below on May 29? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on May 26? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C or higher on May 24? May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 24? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on May 23? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on May 23? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 21? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on May 20? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 20? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 17? May 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 16? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on May 14? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on May 15? May 15 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 41h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $25 8d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 45°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.94 · official $49.94 (match) · 513 history records