Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13e9…7cd4 crypto 1771 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,353 (-14%) realized −$4,352 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%906W / 781L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$1,793
other 14% +$191
sports 14% +$619
world 1% +$195
politics 1% +$42
finance 0% −$40
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +8.1% -2.2% 57% 57% +21.8%
≤30d 727 +5.3% -4.8% 55% 55% +13.8%
≤90d 1329 +3.5% -6.3% 55% 55% +6.9%
all 1687 +4.4% -5.6% 54% 54% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 54% -1.8%
10% -14.6% 53% -11.2%
15% -22.9% 53% -19.8%
20% -30.4% 53% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized−$4,352
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses906 / 781
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1687 / 1771
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $245 $235 −$10 (-4%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 77¢ $116 $114 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 90¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 60¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 58¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Down 51¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$40 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $211 +$175 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$11 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $28 +$25 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$88 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$7 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$30 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$18 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $186 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $48 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 19h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.72 · official $788.13 (match) · 3500 history records