Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13e4…5ed2 crypto 1205 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$170 (-4%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%630W / 575L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -13.1% -21.4% 50% 50% -21.1%
≤30d 131 -13.1% -21.4% 50% 50% -21.1%
≤90d 1205 -14.3% -22.5% 52% 50% -15.0%
all 1205 -14.3% -22.5% 52% 50% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 50% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 48% -23.1%
15% -36.7% 31% -30.6%
20% -42.9% 23% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses630 / 575
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1205 / 1205
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1205 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records