Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13de…54c2 politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% $0
other 25% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage112d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $98 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $99 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $98 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 15h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 15h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 15h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $98 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $98 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 32d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $98 34d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $98 35d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 37d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 37d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 40d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $38 41d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $34 41d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $26 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $98 42d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $98 43d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $99 66d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $99 66d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 70d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 71d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 71d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $99 76d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 77d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $80 77d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 84d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 85d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $99 95d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $99 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records