Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

13 0x13dc…5150 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized +$35 · open −$65

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%3W / 8L

Drawdown84%max

Avg bet$131per market

Trades / day18.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$1,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-6.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+3.9%	-6.0%	27%	27%	+2.2%
≤30d	11	+3.9%	-6.0%	27%	27%	+2.2%
≤90d	11	+3.9%	-6.0%	27%	27%	+2.2%
all	11	+3.9%	-6.0%	27%	27%	+2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.0%	27%	+2.2%
10%	-15.0%	27%	-7.6%
15%	-23.2%	9%	-16.5%
20%	-30.8%	9%	-24.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$95 vs −$29 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.23 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,435

Realized+$35

Unrealized−$65

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses3 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)11 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$131

Trades / day18.1

Drawdown84%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1,000	$964	−$36 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$300	$277	−$23 (-8%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	66¢	64¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$100	$95	−$5 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$101	+$29	+28%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$22	−$21	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$103	−$100	-98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$31	+$242	+785%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 20	$16	−$15	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 20	$53	−$50	-94%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$21	−$20	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 20	$52	+$15	+29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	81¢	$130	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	17h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	17h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	0¢	$22	17h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$308	29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1,028	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$5	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$16	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$5	29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$26	29h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	30h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$31	31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$66	31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$26	31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	31h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,434.51 · official $1,434.51 (match) · 26 history records