Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
13 0x13da…4c7d crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$456 (+2%) realized +$456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%24W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$895per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 8% -8.0%
≤30d 26 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 8% -8.0%
≤90d 26 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 8% -8.0%
all 26 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 8% -8.0%
10% -20.0% 4% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 4% -24.8%
20% -34.8% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,301) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$150 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses24 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$895
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,501 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,505 +$63 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$82 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1,301 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1,301 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1,303 +$37 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,302 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $1,301 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1,301 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,301 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1,102 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,104 +$55 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1,110 +$154 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1,101 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,007 +$100 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,440 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $61 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1,505 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1,303 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,301 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,301 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,301 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1,110 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1,007 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,001 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records