Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13da…b8d0 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$731 (-6%) realized −$730 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%40W / 31L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$732
other 24% −$3
tech 5% $0
economics 4% $0
weather 4% −$8
finance 2% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -4.8% -13.9% 22% 6% -11.8%
≤90d 35 -5.3% -14.3% 40% 3% -15.5%
all 71 -6.4% -15.3% 56% 3% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 3% -15.5%
10% -23.4% 0% -23.6%
15% -30.8% 0% -31.0%
20% -37.6% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$32 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$730
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses40 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage167d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 23? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 17? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 17 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 11? Apr 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $124 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 09 $124 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 28 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 25? Mar 25 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 24? Mar 25 $124 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $124 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 23 $124 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 19 $610 −$610 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 19? Feb 19 $610 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 19 $747 +$58 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 19 $44 −$10 -23%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 19 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $548 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 18 $547 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 18 $498 +$49 +10%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 16? Feb 17 $498 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 01 $125 −$123 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $28 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $28 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $23 10d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 87¢ $25 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 76¢ $12 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 98¢ $12 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $12 20d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 97¢ $12 20d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 22d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12 22d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 23d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $12 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.97 · official $28.97 (match) · 221 history records