Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x13d6…5cc7 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,504 (-15%) realized −$3,900 · open +$396
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 44L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,000
7 days−$1,370
14 days−$1,876
30 days−$3,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$3,466
other 14% −$388
crypto 3% +$628
world 1% −$150
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -49.9% -54.7% 15% 15% -43.2%
≤30d 38 -41.7% -47.3% 24% 24% -23.5%
≤90d 38 -41.7% -47.3% 24% 24% -23.5%
all 55 -45.0% -50.2% 20% 20% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.2% 20% -23.0%
10% -55.0% 20% -30.4%
15% -59.3% 18% -37.1%
20% -63.3% 16% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -53% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$618 vs −$241 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$2,756
Realized−$3,900
Unrealized+$396
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions16
Markets (closed)55 / 71
History coverage222d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $400 $549 +$149 (+37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $450 $459 +$9 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 88¢ $100 $305 +$205 (+205%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $195 $292 +$97 (+50%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $191 $274 +$83 (+44%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $200 $181 −$19 (-9%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $133 $127 −$6 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $55 $34 −$21 (-38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $40 $5 −$35 (-86%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $608 −$282 -46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $127 +$178 +140%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 +$227 +90%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $230 +$967 +420%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$30 -60%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $5,074 −$2,575 -51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $420 +$608 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$168 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $503 +$122 +24%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $122 +$178 +146%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $68 −$66 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,626 +$1,852 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,316 −$459 -35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 31 $104 −$100 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $513 −$500 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,330 +$1,777 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $2,432 −$2,400 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Mar 12 $250 +$174 +70%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November? Mar 12 $100 +$544 +544%
Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Xi visit the US by December 31? Nov 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 36m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 2h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 2h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $508 29h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $102 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 60¢ $455 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $127 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $152 3d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $254 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $204 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,755.93 · official $2,768.09 (match) · 140 history records