Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13d3…415e weather 735 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (419 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,210 (+12%) realized +$4,242 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate69%619W / 283L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day419.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (419 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 842 -18.6% -26.3% 67% 5% -21.2%
≤30d 902 -15.8% -23.8% 69% 6% -18.9%
≤90d 902 -15.8% -23.8% 69% 6% -18.9%
all 902 -15.8% -23.8% 69% 6% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover419.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 6% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 3% -26.6%
15% -37.8% 3% -33.7%
20% -43.9% 3% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,938
Realized+$4,242
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses619 / 283
Open positions74
Markets (closed)902 / 735
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day419.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 902 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $85 $89 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $69 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? No 96¢ 98¢ $67 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 86¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 92¢ 97¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 97¢ 97¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 94¢ 94¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? No 88¢ 93¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 94¢ 93¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? No 94¢ 87¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 22? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 17 $19 −$29 -152%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15? Jun 17 $11 −$13 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 12? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 4? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 25? Jun 17 $44 −$54 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 18? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on April 11? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 3? Jun 17 $8 −$14 -167%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 2? Jun 17 $5 −$29 -572%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 27? Jun 17 $28 −$49 -174%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 7? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 30? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? Jun 17 $4 −$6 -131%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C or below on April 14? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 10? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on April 4? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 16? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 25? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 2? Jun 17 $3 −$6 -180%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 4? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 19? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 2? Jun 17 $13 −$15 -117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $23 1m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $60 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $9 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 3m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $28 3m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $33 3m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 16m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 16m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 16m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 16m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $23 21m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $29 21m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 72¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 71¢ $11 26m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $4 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 37m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 51m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 54m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $29 55m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $11 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,937.77 · official $1,936.48 (match) · 3500 history records