Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x13d0…593d
other · 6 markets active 5h ago
2.0score
−$4,381 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,444 · open −$936
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,520
Realized−$3,444
Unrealized−$936
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage104d
Avg bet$2,803
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 5 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $9,457 $8,701 −$755 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,000 $967 −$33 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $900 −$100 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $488 −$12 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $464 −$36 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $3,921 −$3,444 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% −$936
economics 23% −$3,444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $535 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $535 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,070 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9,248 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $165 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $309 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $477 88d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $1,921 103d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 5¢ $2,000 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-89.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -87.8% -89.0% 0% 0% -89.0%
all 1 -87.8% -89.0% 0% 0% -89.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -89.0% 0% -89.0%
10% ← realistic here -90.0% 0% -90.0%
15% -91.0% 0% -91.0%
20% -91.9% 0% -91.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,520.22 · official $11,520.22 (match) · 17 history records