Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13c9…1fdb sports 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$844 (-7%) realized −$843 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate48%57W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$1,126
14 days−$1,121
30 days−$1,007
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$317
other 32% −$98
crypto 20% −$470
finance 5% −$13
world 3% +$4
economics 2% +$4
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -47.4% -52.4% 22% 15% -38.3%
≤30d 48 -22.2% -29.6% 44% 15% -27.1%
≤90d 93 -20.1% -27.7% 39% 12% -26.5%
all 119 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 16% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 16% -16.9%
10% -27.8% 13% -24.8%
15% -34.7% 12% -32.1%
20% -41.1% 11% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$843
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses57 / 62
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage250d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 26¢ 26¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $360 +$13 +4%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $580 −$10 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil Jun 25 $55 +$45 +82%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 25 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil Jun 25 $39 −$31 -81%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Jun 24 $98 −$36 -37%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 24 $16 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Freedom" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Jun 24 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wo Jun 24 $38 −$2 -5%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wor Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Switzerland vs Can Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Scotland vs Brazil FI Jun 24 $68 −$68 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $56 +$44 +79%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $116 −$116 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $83 −$81 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,023 −$103 -10%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $83 +$117 +140%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $85 −$84 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $525 −$516 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $211 +$2 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$52 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $88 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $104 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 03 $47 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $44 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $98 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $167 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 01 $271 +$10 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 29 $145 +$5 +4%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May? May 23 $43 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $30 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 26¢ $45 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $373 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $360 8h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $570 9h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $52 9h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $528 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $39 43h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA BUY No 60¢ $36 2d
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico BUY Yes 57¢ $57 2d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico SELL No 41¢ $15 2d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA SELL No 61¢ $6 2d
Will the announcers say "Freedom" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World SELL No 46¢ $27 2d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF SELL No 22¢ $20 2d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA SELL No 62¢ $55 2d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wo SELL No 37¢ $36 2d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA Wor BUY No 36¢ $36 2d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 24¢ $2 2d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA BUY No 62¢ $62 2d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 24¢ $5 2d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 24¢ $5 2d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 24¢ $12 2d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA Wo BUY No 38¢ $38 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Switzerland vs Can BUY No 23¢ $23 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil BUY No 34¢ $14 2d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil BUY No 55¢ $55 2d
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Scotland vs Brazil FI BUY No 68¢ $68 2d
Will the announcers say "Freedom" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World BUY No 46¢ $28 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil BUY No 34¢ $12 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil BUY No 34¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.35 · official $43.35 (match) · 493 history records