Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13c9…fcf3 weather 790 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$164 (+0%) realized +$163 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +259% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +177% what you keep after slip
Net edge+177%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate96%776W / 35L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+225.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +380.1% +334.3% 84% 20% -13.0%
≤30d 387 +135.8% +113.4% 95% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 811 +259.4% +225.2% 96% 13% -9.7%
all 811 +259.4% +225.2% 96% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +225.2% 13% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here +194.1% 13% -18.3%
15% +165.7% 13% -26.2%
20% +139.6% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +259% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +365% → late +154% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$28 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses776 / 35
Open positions8
Markets (closed)811 / 790
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 21? No 97¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 21? No 98¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on March 18? Jun 21 $0 +$5 +40088%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 18? Jun 21 $0 +$2 +24150%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 11? Jun 21 $1 −$16 -2804%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 13? Jun 21 $1 −$17 -3266%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be -1°C on April 10? Jun 21 $1 −$9 -1772%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 18? Jun 21 $0 −$25 -5039%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on April 12? Jun 21 $0 −$5 -998%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 15? Jun 21 $0 −$17 -8636%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 4? Jun 21 $0 −$12 -5768%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C or higher on April 12? Jun 21 $0 −$19 -10934%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 29? Jun 21 $0 −$5 -3138%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 12? Jun 21 $0 −$7 -5445%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 2? Jun 21 $0 −$32 -28982%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 11? Jun 21 $0 +$36 +3640770%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 2? Jun 21 $0 +$32 +933444%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on March 28 Jun 21 $0 +$3 +44695%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April Jun 21 $0 +$41 +673997%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12? Jun 21 $0 +$18 +527750%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 16? Jun 21 $0 +$33 +986115%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 14? Jun 21 $0 +$40 +2103826%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 16 Jun 21 $0 +$33 +2169440%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 1? Jun 21 $0 +$32 +703751%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 13? Jun 21 $0 +$58 +2516417%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 3? Jun 21 $0 +$32 +717004%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 16? Jun 21 $0 +$40 +1722009%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9? Jun 21 $0 +$32 +1201048%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Jun 21 $0 +$8 +149014%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 13? Jun 21 $0 +$41 +1850914%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 16? Jun 21 $0 +$46 +2872094%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 20? Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $28 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $40 14m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 99¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $41 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $41 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $41 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $41 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $41 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $41 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $41 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $41 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $41 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $25 27h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $30 28h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $16 33h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $42 35h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $35 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $20 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $42 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $42 41h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $42 46h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 47h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.50 · official $261.75 · 3500 history records