Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13c9…484e crypto 1783 markets active 12h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate78%1388W / 395L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days+$2
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$19
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -2.7% -12.0% 56% 38% -13.3%
≤30d 741 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 43% -9.0%
≤90d 1783 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 47% -9.9%
all 1783 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 47% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 47% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 23% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 11% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1388 / 395
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1783 / 1783
History coverage68d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1783 Trades
no open positions (373 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 +$4 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $3 +$5 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 +$5 +49900%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $3 +$4 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.24 · official $5.24 (match) · 3243 history records