Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13c9…d473 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+9%) realized +$175 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$146
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$114
sports 11% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.3% -17.0% 83% 33% -1.9%
≤30d 10 -11.9% -20.3% 70% 40% -1.7%
≤90d 10 -11.9% -20.3% 70% 40% -1.7%
all 10 -11.9% -20.3% 70% 40% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 40% -1.7%
10% -27.9% 20% -11.1%
15% -34.9% 10% -19.7%
20% -41.3% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$27 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$175
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage10d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $109 +$8 +8%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $212 +$56 +27%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 25 $201 +$6 +3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $990 +$110 +11%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $186 +$4 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $40 −$38 -96%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $130 +$18 +14%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $41 +$48 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $117 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 79¢ $207 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $38 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $4 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $75 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $95 8h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 76¢ $201 20h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No $3 2d
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $0 2d
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $35 2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $34 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $29 4d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $335 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $17 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $276 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.09 · official $17.10 (match) · 52 history records