Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13c6…29d8 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$452 (-43%) realized −$452 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -52.7% -57.2% 40% 20% -58.7%
≤30d 5 -52.7% -57.2% 40% 20% -58.7%
≤90d 5 -52.7% -57.2% 40% 20% -58.7%
all 5 -52.7% -57.2% 40% 20% -58.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.2% 20% -58.7%
10% -61.3% 20% -62.7%
15% -65.0% 0% -66.3%
20% -68.5% 0% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$174 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $309 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $207 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records