Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
13 0x13c6…c083 crypto 266 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$651 (+2%) realized +$651 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate82%219W / 47L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$329
other 30% +$230
sports 2% +$28
weather 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -26.9% -33.9% 59% 12% -11.1%
≤30d 34 -26.9% -33.9% 59% 12% -11.1%
≤90d 36 -26.0% -33.0% 58% 14% -11.1%
all 266 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 25% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 25% -7.7%
10% -19.1% 10% -16.6%
15% -26.9% 5% -24.6%
20% -34.1% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$49 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$651
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses219 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage178d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $676 +$2 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $637 +$39 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $431 +$205 +48%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $398 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $259 +$542 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 −$399 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $625 +$99 +16%
Donyell Malen: 1+ shots Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $595 +$33 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $515 +$19 +4%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $532 +$44 +8%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $518 +$13 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $479 +$40 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $452 +$27 +6%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $432 +$20 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $421 +$9 +2%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $239 −$201 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $398 +$25 +6%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $394 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $366 +$32 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 21 $9 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 21 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 10 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 09 $236 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 09 $122 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 09 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 09 $104 −$59 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 09 $104 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 09 $103 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 08 $213 −$171 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 08 $200 +$13 +7%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 08 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 08 $197 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 08 $188 +$10 +5%
Brisbane International: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov Jan 08 $192 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 08 $175 +$17 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $678 52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $78 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $598 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $637 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $636 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $431 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 92¢ $398 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $15 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $259 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $400 46h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 86¢ $625 2d
Donyell Malen: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $628 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $595 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $534 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $193 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 935 history records