Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13c5…478f other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+3%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$1
world 11% −$1
sports 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.2% +8.7% 50% 50% -7.3%
≤30d 11 +22.9% +11.2% 55% 55% -1.2%
≤90d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 47% -6.7%
all 17 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 47% -6.7%
10% -14.2% 35% -15.6%
15% -22.5% 35% -23.7%
20% -30.1% 24% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage71d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 29¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Yes 32¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -48%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +50%
Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 4? May 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.5 and 2.75 million views in the Apr 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.75 and 3 million views in the fi Apr 08 $12 −$2 -16%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.25 and 2,5 million views in the Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? Apr 07 $7 +$2 +22%
Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference Apr 07 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 15h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 15h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 15h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 15h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $3 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 37d
Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 4? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 42d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.5 and 2.75 million views in the SELL Yes $0 68d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.75 and 3 million views in the fi SELL Yes $0 68d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.75 and 3 million views in the fi BUY Yes 31¢ $2 69d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.75 and 3 million views in the fi BUY Yes 31¢ $1 69d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.25 and 2,5 million views in the BUY Yes $1 69d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.5 and 2.75 million views in the BUY Yes 28¢ $1 69d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.75 and 3 million views in the fi SELL Yes 24¢ $10 69d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.75 and 3 million views in the fi BUY Yes 22¢ $9 69d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 69d
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 70d
Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference SELL No $0 70d
Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference BUY Yes 84¢ $6 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.61 · official $8.61 (match) · 37 history records