Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13c1…930c sports 18 markets active 2d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$80
other 27% −$78
crypto 19% +$1
world 6% +$1
tech 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 80% 40% -10.4%
≤30d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 86% 29% -10.1%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 94% 12% -9.5%
all 18 +1.0% -8.6% 94% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 11% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 6% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$210 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage98d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $459 +$55 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $458 +$1 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $328 +$130 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $536 −$210 -39%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $535 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? Jun 01 $525 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 27 $535 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May May 19 $510 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? May 09 $530 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $534 +$1 +0%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $524 +$10 +2%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $515 +$8 +2%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 04 $512 +$4 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $511 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $511 +$1 +0%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $509 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records