Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13b8…d1af sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,302 (+7%) realized +$14,847 · open −$3,545
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$2,609per market
Trades / day296.2pace
Fees−$2,553est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$15,294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$5,097
other 12% +$4,546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 46% -0.1%
≤30d 57 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 46% -0.1%
≤90d 57 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 46% -0.1%
all 57 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 46% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover296.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 46% -0.1%
10% -17.5% 44% -9.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 42% -18.4%
20% -32.7% 39% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,880) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,503 vs −$1,674 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$15,294
Realized+$14,847
Unrealized−$3,545
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,553
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2,609
Trades / day296.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 46¢ 100¢ $7,107 $15,289 +$8,182 (+115%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 22¢ $1,100 $2 −$1,098 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 49¢ $2,450 $2 −$2,447 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3,233 +$1,767 +55%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $2,289 +$2,711 +118%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $1,380 +$218 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $5,273 +$3,727 +71%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $3,193 +$3,362 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,817 −$1,803 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $1,784 −$1,750 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $2,003 −$39 -2%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,427 −$1,822 -75%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,850 −$1,350 -47%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,508 −$2,480 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $1,870 +$2,130 +114%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $1,470 −$362 -25%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,950 −$190 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $4,800 +$3,618 +75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,120 +$4,880 +156%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,014 −$1,220 -61%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $1,402 −$802 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,380 −$610 -44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $3,356 +$3,548 +106%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $238 +$146 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2,250 −$1,250 -56%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $3,611 +$2,245 +62%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $2,261 −$2,261 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,034 +$1,966 +190%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $2,836 −$2,835 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $958 −$938 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,550 +$2,450 +96%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2,700 +$2,300 +85%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,350 +$2,650 +113%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,320 +$1,680 +127%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4,674 +$3,323 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,350 −$2,350 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,220 +$780 +35%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2,798 −$2,798 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $3,127 −$3,127 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $3,340 −$2,437 -73%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,893 −$2,880 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,155 +$1,845 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $2,182 −$1,010 -46%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,857 +$832 +45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,986 +$2,789 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,550 +$2,450 +96%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,250 −$782 -35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,766 +$3,234 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,000 +$5,500 +138%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $3,180 −$2,414 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 22¢ $1,126 59m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 27¢ $828 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $195 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $207 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $1,598 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $225 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $166 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $264 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $387 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,293.83 · official $15,293.83 (match) · 1020 history records