Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
13 0x13b6…c633 crypto 564 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,449 (+292%) realized +$3,598 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%94W / 348L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day122.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$287
other 39% −$105
finance 10% +$5
tech 10% +$26
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -25.6% -32.7% 15% 15% -16.8%
≤30d 442 +2.3% -7.4% 21% 20% +14.6%
≤90d 442 +2.3% -7.4% 21% 20% +14.6%
all 442 +2.3% -7.4% 21% 20% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 20% +14.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 20% +3.6%
15% -24.4% 19% -6.4%
20% -31.8% 17% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized+$3,598
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses94 / 348
Open positions228
Markets (closed)442 / 564
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day122.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 228 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+133%)
Reya FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+66%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+246%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-39%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+74%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will BNB reach $1,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+118%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 272 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 29 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on February 10? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 8 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +130%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 28? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Jun 15 $7 −$6 -87%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on December 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on December 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 1 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 3? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 25? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CryptoPunks floor price reach 70 ETH in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -194%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $3,600 on the final trading day of January Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 11 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? Jun 15 $0 $0 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 19? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on February 2? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on March 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $90 on March 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 on March 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 9? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 20 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 13 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on March 29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +112%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -103%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $250–265 in 2025? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on March 10? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on March 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on December 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on March 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 6? Jun 15 $0 $0 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 35m
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 37m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 43m
Will Solana reach $110 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.26 · official $331.16 (match) · 3500 history records