Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
13 0x13b6…b339 crypto 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$345 (+5%) realized +$345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%88W / 74L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$180
14 days+$180
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$285
finance 1% −$14
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +70.6% +54.3% 53% 47% +3.0%
≤30d 19 +70.6% +54.3% 53% 47% +3.0%
≤90d 26 +49.6% +35.3% 54% 46% +3.4%
all 162 -0.7% -10.1% 54% 40% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 40% -6.0%
10% -18.7% 23% -15.0%
15% -26.6% 16% -23.2%
20% -33.8% 12% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses88 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage107d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $354 +$61 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $123 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$34 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $124 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $124 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $130 +$41 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$29 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $109 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$40 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 22 $208 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 22 $150 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 22 $140 +$30 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 22 $42 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 22 $145 +$69 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 22 $93 +$9 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 22 $110 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 07 $127 +$154 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 07 $116 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 07 $132 +$21 +16%
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026? Mar 07 $95 −$20 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 01 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 01 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 01 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 01 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 01 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 01 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 01 $80 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 01 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 01 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 01 $60 −$36 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 01 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 01 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 01 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 01 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$2 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $295 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $173 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $47 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 612 history records