Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13b5…d5e4 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$115 (+1%) realized +$90 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%57W / 28L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$327
7 days−$62
14 days−$4
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$288
other 36% +$343
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +22.1% +10.5% 68% 32% -10.5%
≤30d 50 +16.5% +5.4% 74% 30% -9.1%
≤90d 61 +11.2% +0.6% 72% 33% -9.0%
all 85 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 34% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 34% -9.2%
10% -14.2% 26% -17.9%
15% -22.5% 21% -25.8%
20% -30.1% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses57 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage207d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $762 $787 +$25 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $757 +$10 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $760 −$3 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $378 −$378 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 +$3 +339%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $716 +$41 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $663 +$52 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $660 +$4 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $345 +$33 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $328 +$17 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $211 +$118 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $145 +$68 +47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$20 +386%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $205 −$80 -39%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$4 -73%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $196 +$8 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +71%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $180 +$19 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $170 +$12 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $163 +$7 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $149 +$14 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $136 +$13 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $134 +$3 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $95 +$41 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $94 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $127 −$33 -26%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 11 $115 +$12 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 06 $1 +$1 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 195.5 Jun 06 $100 +$8 +8%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 +$2 +185%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $43 +$2 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $85 +$17 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 04 $74 +$7 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $81 +$4 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $73 +$1 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $68 +$5 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $70 −$2 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $70 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $66 +$3 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $22 −$10 -46%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $5 +$4 +74%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 29 $28 −$15 -53%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 27 $28 +$5 +19%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $16 +$12 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $767 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $757 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $757 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $760 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 94¢ $716 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $663 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $663 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $660 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $378 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $378 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $345 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $345 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $328 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $211 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $145 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $125 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $205 6d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $204 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 6d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $196 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $5 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.19 · official $787.19 (match) · 194 history records