Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13b5…08ad other 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%15W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$2
sports 24% −$4
politics 22% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
economics 8% −$1
culture 6% $0
world 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 168 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 153
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage159d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $37 $0 -1%
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 26 $43 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 19 $45 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $165 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $34 7h
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $37 12d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $37 13d
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $42 26d
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $43 26d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $35 34d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $35 36d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $1 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $28 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $17 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $45 121d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $38 121d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $38 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $45 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $45 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $45 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $45 121d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $4 121d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 121d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $4 121d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 121d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 121d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 121d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $40 121d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $40 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $39 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $39 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 678 history records