Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13b2…5486 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+10%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$48
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$26
sports 28% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +55.8% +41.0% 50% 50% +6.1%
≤30d 13 +49.4% +35.2% 46% 46% -0.5%
≤90d 24 +16.7% +5.6% 38% 38% -16.3%
all 24 +16.7% +5.6% 38% 38% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 38% -16.3%
10% -4.5% 38% -24.3%
15% -13.8% 38% -31.6%
20% -22.2% 38% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$24 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage44d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$40 +390%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $15 +$20 +128%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$40 +392%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$38 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$15 -28%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 14 $41 +$30 +74%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 12 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 +$85 +413%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 0 - 0 Valencia CF? May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 76¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $4 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 5d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 5d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 8d
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Diego Padres $67 39d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 39d
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 41d
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 41d
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 41d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 41d
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 41d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $70 42d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $41 42d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records